Player props add extra excitement to betting on sports games. They give helpful insights into a player's ability to do well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your favorite sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects several individual performances worth watching in today's games. Let's explore some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 8. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Peter Lambert Under 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160, DraftKings)
Peter Lambert is set to make his third appearance of the season, facing the San Francisco Giants at home after struggling against the Miami Marlins.
Lambert ranks in the 32nd percentile for strikeout rate (20.0%) and the 34th percentile for walk rate (10.0%). Additionally, he hasn't pitched deep into games, failing to achieve four or more strikeouts in his only two starts, where he hasn't gone beyond 3.1 innings, giving up four or more earned runs each time.
Despite the Giants having the 13th-highest strikeout rate (23.2%), Lambert has allowed 10 or more batted ball events in both of his starts.
Jordan Montgomery Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Jordan Montgomery's recent tough outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers seems to be skewing the line too low. Despite giving up six runs in three innings, in the game prior, he tossed 87 pitches over seven innings, indicating he's likely back in form.
Facing the Cincinnati Reds presents an ideal opportunity for a rebound. They currently sit in the bottom five in both OPS and WRC+ against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 games. Although they draw walks frequently, Montgomery boasts excellent command with a 6% walk rate this season and last.
He has a strong track record of going deep into games, surpassing this line in 24 out of 32 games last season and in 2 out of 3 this year, despite early restrictions. Additionally, the Reds have allowed several pitchers, including John Means, Cole Irvin, Tyler Anderson, and Ranger Suarez, to go seven innings against them at home.
Except for his last outing versus the Dodgers, Montgomery managed 6 innings in both of his other starts, needing less than 80 pitches each time. Thus, with his efficient pitch count and tendency to limit walks, this line seems too conservative in this favorable matchup.
Lock of the Day
Jordan Hicks Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115, DraftKings)
In all seven of his starts this year, Jordan Hicks has consistently performed well, allowing only two runs against a formidable Philadelphia Phillies team in his last outing. With an expected ERA of 3.12 and an expected BA of .217, he ranks in the 75th percentile for both metrics. His successful transition to a starter has been a pleasant surprise in the 2024 season.
On the other hand, the Colorado Rockies have been struggling recently, especially against right-handed pitchers. Over the last 14 days, they have a dismal 39 wRC+ against RHP, dropping to -4 in the last 7 days. Their batting average against righties is just .128 with a .383 OPS in the last week. Even at home in the last 30 days against right-handers, they rank worst in MLB with a 57 wRC+.
Even though the game is at Coors Field, which could be a small worry, the Rockies continue to struggle with their offense. In their last eight home games at Coors, they’ve only scored three or more runs twice. With such a weak offense, betting that the total score will be high seems like a good choice.
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