Under the previous general manager Kevin Colbert, Pittsburgh Steelers fans usually knew which player the team would pick in the first round, creating little drama around the team’s first selection. From 2000-22, the Steelers only traded their first-round selection on draft night four times.
However, the final round of mock drafts and predictions from experts show that there is no consensus on who the Steelers will pick in the first round on April 25.
NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zierlein, and Peter Schrager, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., and Pro Football Focus’ Cris Collinsworth all predicted different first-round draft outcomes for the Steelers. Only two of them had Pittsburgh targeting the same prospect.
Schrager was the outlier among these mock drafts from a Steelers perspective. He predicted the Steelers to select LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
The other four analysts projected Pittsburgh to land an offensive lineman. Zierlein and Kiper agreed on Duke’s Graham Barton, but Kiper suggested the Steelers could trade up to land him.
Jeremiah and Collinsworth predicted the Steelers to target different offensive tackles — Oklahoma State’s Tyler Guyton and Alabama’s JC Latham.
None of those four players have been popular selections for the Steelers in mock drafts all offseason. According to the NFL mock draft database, 15.6% of mock drafts have projected the Steelers to select Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims.
In second place, Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson has been the pick for Pittsburgh in 14.7% of NFL mock drafts according to the database.
The lack of consensus is likely to make the 2024 draft night unpredictable for the Steelers.
Steelers Expected to Pursue Duke’s Graham Barton
Barton may not have been a popular selection for Pittsburgh this offseason, but his draft stock has been gaining momentum with Mike Tomlin and Omar Khan in recent weeks.
Barton played left tackle for Duke for the last three seasons. However, NFL scouts expect him to transition to being a center at the next level. He started five games at center as a freshman in 2020.
Zierlein sees Barton as appealing for the Steelers because he would immediately fill the team’s need in the middle of their offensive line without much risk.
“I know the Steelers have needs at tackle, cornerback, and wide receiver, but hear me out,” wrote Zierlein. “Pittsburgh certainly could use help along the interior O-line, as well, and Barton might be one of the safest picks in the first round as someone who can play center or guard as an immediate starter.”
Kiper also predicted the Steelers to target Barton, providing some consensus among Pittsburgh fans before the draft. However, he did not rule out Khan trading up for the Duke lineman.
“Barton, my top-ranked center, has been a hot name in my calls with execs and coaches over the past week,” Kiper wrote. “People in the league think he’ll be really good immediately at the next level.
“The Pittsburgh team, known for having great centers, is heavily linked with Barton from Duke and might even trade up to ensure they get him, according to predictions.
Pittsburgh is expected to choose Tyler Guyton and JC Latham for the offensive line positions.
It’s clear that Pittsburgh urgently needs a center going into the first round as they currently don't have any natural centers on their team.
However, it's also widely agreed that offensive tackles offer more value at the No. 20 overall pick. In Collinsworth's final mock draft, Latham was seen as a great choice for Pittsburgh.
According to Collinsworth, Latham, despite his 342-pound frame, is remarkably agile with long arms and big hands, making him a top prospect for tackle positions in the draft. Collinsworth mentioned, "Many will consider him the second-best tackle in this draft, and I agree.Latham's quick feet are effective against outside rushers, but can be a disadvantage against inside moves. When he manages to use his long arms and big hands, it's quite impressive.
His true power is not always evident unless he's in a down block or a double team, but given his young age of 21, there's still a lot of potential. With Okorafor gone, this would be an ideal pick for the Steelers.
The Steelers could benefit from an upgrade at right tackle, which would allow them to move Broderick Jones back to left tackle immediately. As Chukwuma Okorafor is gone, this would be a dream pick for the Steelers. and Mason Cole The Steelers could use an improvement at right tackle, enabling them to move 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones back to left tackle immediately.
Broderick Jones could switch back to left tackle if the Steelers select a right tackle. Jeremiah's last mock draft saw six offensive tackles, including Latham, being picked before No. 20. However, the NFL.com analyst still predicted the Steelers to enhance the right tackle position with Guyton. Jeremiah indicated that cornerback is an option, but the Steelers seem to be focusing on upgrading the offensive line just like they did last year.
Could the Steelers possibly choose wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr? While it's widely expected that the Steelers will pick an offensive lineman in the first round, it's not guaranteed. Apart from the need for offensive linemen, Pittsburgh also has a significant gap at the WR2 position. There have been rumors of their interest in acquiring experienced players like Brandon Aiyuk and Courtland Sutton, but nothing has materialized thus far.
Hence, it's possible that the Steelers might surprise draft analysts and aim for a wide receiver in the first round. Schrager believes this wouldn't be surprising and has projected the team to choose Thomas. Schrager mentioned, "I believe there's a big move coming for Pittsburgh regarding a wide receiver. Could it be for Brandon Aiyuk? If not, Thomas is an outstanding talent who greatly impressed at the NFL Scouting Combine.“I predicted this in my initial mock draft and I'm sticking with it.” He led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns last season, along with 68 catches and 1,177 receiving yards, averaging 17.3 yards per reception. Picking the LSU receiver won't directly help the team's offensive line, but pairing Thomas with George Pickens could give the Steelers an impressive duo at wide receiver.
the NFL averaged 18.1 yards per catch last year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers don't seem to be focusing on a specific prospect for their first-round pick in 2024.
In addition to the offensive line needs, Pittsburgh has a big hole at WR2. The Steelers have been rumored to be interested in trading for veterans Brandon Aiyuk or Courtland Sutton. But nothing has materialized on that front.
Therefore, it’s possible the Steelers surprise most draft analysts and target a receiver in the first round. That wouldn’t be a surprise to Schrager, who projected the Steelers to target Thomas.
“I still think there’s a giant move to be made by Pittsburgh at WR,” wrote Schrager. “Could it be for Brandon Aiyuk? If not, Thomas is a special talent who helped himself at the NFL Scouting Combine as much as any player at the position.
“I had this match in my first mock and am holding steady here.”
Thomas led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns last season. He also had 68 catches and 1,177 receiving yards. Thomas averaged 17.3 yards per reception.
Drafting the LSU receiver will obviously not help Pittsburgh’s offensive line. But pairing Thomas with George Pickens could give the Steelers a lethal 1-2 punch at wide receiver. Pickens led the NFL with an 18.1 yards per catch average last year.
