Tyler Herro didn’t play well in Game 1 and that disappointed fans. Miami HeaThis time, Herro is expected to have a much better offensive performance, while Nikola Jovic will continue to get a lot of rebounds in Game 2 against the Boston Celtics.
This time, Herro is expected to have a much better offensive performance, while Nikola Jovic will continue to get a lot of rebounds in Game 2 against the Boston Celtics. Boston Celtics.
Let’s analyze below, including why our dfsPro model is accurate in its predictions!
NBA Playoff Props for April 24
Tyler Herro Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-115) – DraftKings
Tyler Herro’s points, rebounds, and assists prop line is set at 30.5, which seems high given his poor performance in Game 1 when he only had 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists from 4-for-13 shooting. However, our AI model predicts Herro will do much better in Game 2, projecting him to finish with 23.6 points, 6.9 assists, and 5.6 rebounds.The two main predicted increases from Herro’s usual performance in this game are in points and assists. The forecasted 23.6 points is 2.8 points more (+13.46%) than his average of 20.8, and the 6.9-assist forecast is 53.33% more than his regular season average. Jimmy Butler’s absence puts more pressure on Herro to produce offensively than usual, but he averaged 21.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists
in 14 games without Butler this season, so this is not uncharted territory for him.
Before Game 1 of this series, Herro had gone over this line (30.5) in five of his past six games despite recently returning from an injury. Boston’s defense ranks
second in defensive rating this season, so nothing will come easy for Herro, but his usage will be extremely high again. Nikola Jovic Over 4.5 Rebounds (-112) – DraftKings
Another consideration with Butler sidelined is which Heat players will log more minutes and potentially see more overall usage. Jovic falls into the category of a player who will be leaned on heavily, particularly as a rebounder. At 6-foot-10, Jovic is one of the tallest players on the . His ability to rebound has helped him find the floor more consistently for this team. Miami’s rotation is notoriously challenging to get into.
Our model predicts Jovic will finish with 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 more (+33.33%) than his season average.
Recently, Jovic has been grabbing a lot of rebounds, getting five or more in six of his past seven games. He only fell short of five rebounds once, against Toronto; that game he only played 16 minutes.
Because of Miami’s injury situation, it’s unlikely for Jovic to only see the floor for that amount of time. He played 26 minutes in Game 1, which is much more like what we can expect in Game 2. Heat rosterOne Last Thought
Occasionally, our model’s projection for the spread doesn't match the actual line; however, for this Game 2 between the Celtics and Heat, the difference is huge.
DraftKings has the point spread at 14.5 points in favor of Boston at home; but our model suggests the line should be closer to 9.5 points. The Heat have done okay without Butler all season, and while Boston is strong, giving 14.5 points to back the Celtics is not the best choice.
I'm picking Miami plus 14.5 points. Coach Erik Spoelstra usually finds ways to make games close even when his team is dealing with injuries.
Tyler Herro from Miami will have a more balanced attack, while Nikola Jovic will be important for grabbing rebounds in Game 2.
Occasionally, there is a slight discrepancy between our model’s projection for where the spread should be and where it actually sits; however, for this Game 2 between the Celtics and Heat, the gap is massive.
DraftKings has the point spread at 14.5 points in favor of Boston on its home floor; however, our model suggests that the line should be closer to 9.5 points. The Heat have fared relatively well without Butler all season, and while Boston has a substantial edge, laying 14.5 points to back the C’s will not be my play.
I will ride with Miami +14.5. Head coach Erik Spoelstra tends to figure out how to keep games competitive with battered rosters.
