Betting on player props adds excitement to sports betting. It gives insight into a player's ability for daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on a sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model forecasts several individual performances worth watching during today's games. Let's explore some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for April 22. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
Jared Jones has been performing exceptionally well, averaging an impressive 8 strikeouts per game over 5.7 innings in his last 4 starts. He consistently ranks among the top pitchers for strikeouts in the league, currently placing 7th despite playing fewer games than others in the top 10. His stats speak for themselves, with outstanding numbers in K%, BB%, Whiff%, and Chase rate, putting him in the 95th percentile or higher.
With a K/9 ratio of 12.5, he's among the best strikeout pitchers in the game. Facing the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank 7th in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers this season and have been striking out frequently, Jones has a favorable matchup. Considering the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was overworked last night, Jones might have a longer stint on the mound, increasing the likelihood of him exceeding the 6.5 strikeouts mark. Our model predicts Jones to strike out 8 batters tonight.
Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 Outs (-135, DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal has consistently surpassed 17.5 outs in most of his recent starts, including 3 out of his last 4 this season and all 4 out of 4 on the road towards the end of the 2023 season. He faces a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, a team he's expected to handle well.
Skubal's efficiency is apparent, averaging around 3.6 pitches per plate appearance this season. He has also been successful against the projected Rays lineup, limiting them to a batting average of .188 across 37 at-bats against him. Although the Rays rank towards the bottom half in batting average, walks, and on-base percentage against left-handed pitchers, they've recently allowed both Cortes and Detmers to pitch for 7 innings. Our model projects Skubal to achieve around 17 outs, but I believe he will pitch deeper into the game tonight after having several starts in 2024 so far.
Best Bet of the Day
Ryan Weathers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
Weathers is up against the Braves who have the 5th lowest strikeout percentage this season and are 7th least susceptible to left-handed pitchers. Weathers has only managed 3 strikeouts in 21 at-bats against Atlanta Braves batters, resulting in a very low strikeout percentage of 14.28%. Based on this percentage, Weathers would need to face an estimated 35 batters compared to his average of 22.3 this season.
Apart from this matchup, Weathers has only reached this threshold in 2 out of 16 games since 2022, averaging 3.4 strikeouts. In away games, this drops to just 1 out of 12 games with an average of 3.1 strikeouts. This is a strong under bet against a tough matchup. Our model predicts Weathers to strike out 3.8 batters tonight.
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