Player props add excitement to sports betting. They give insights into a player's performance in daily fantasy baseball or when betting on a sportsbook.
Our AI-based dfsPro model predicts several individual performances to watch during today's games. Let's look at some of our favorite MLB player proposition bets for April 19. All stats are from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Clark Schmidt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, DraftKings)
Tonight, in the Bronx, Clark Schmidt will pitch for the New York Yankees against the Tampa Bay Rays. Schmidt has a decent 3.68 ERA in 3 starts, but his high 1.64 WHIP indicates trouble on the base paths. Facing the Rays, who tend to hit frequently and have a .296 BABIP this season, Schmidt may face similar challenges.
Additionally, there are reasons to expect a decrease in Schmidt's ability to get strikeouts. While his cutter has had an impressive 38% whiff rate this year, a big jump from last season's 22%, it's unlikely he'll maintain such a significant increase. Coupled with the aggressive approach of the Rays' lineup, it's unlikely Schmidt will get many strikeouts tonight.
Historically, Schmidt has fallen below this strikeout total 70% of the time last season, and he's continued that trend this year with 2 out of his first 3 outings going under. Projections also support this view, predicting Schmidt for just 4.5 strikeouts.
Alec Marsh Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (-160, DraftKings)
Alec Marsh's line of under 2.5 walks allowed is supported by strong evidence for a positive outcome. In his MLB career of 10 starts, he has gone under this mark in 8 out of 10 cases, showing consistent control. This trend continues this season, with Marsh staying under the line in all 3 starts, showing improved command by not allowing more than 1 walk in any game. Impressively, his walk rate is only 4.0% this season, further proving his ability to limit walks.
Marsh's success in avoiding walks is also backed by his performance in home starts, where he has remained under the 2.5 walks threshold in all 3 outings of his career. Adding to the positive outlook is the Orioles' tendency to rarely draw walks against right-handed pitchers, boasting the lowest walk rate against righties in the league at 6.1% this season. Marsh's recent game against the Orioles saw him give up just 1 walk, showing his ability to navigate their lineup accurately.
Considering these factors, the chance of Marsh exceeding the 2.5 walks allowed mark seems low, even though the line is priced at a premium. Given his consistent performance and the Orioles' tendency to avoid walks against right-handed pitching, this line seems heavily favorable towards a positive outcome, potentially undervalued at its current offering.
Tip of the Day
Garrett Crochet's Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110, DraftKings)
Garrett Crochet has become an outstanding performer for the Chicago White Sox this year, demonstrating his skills in four games where he did better than expected in three. Taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, a team ranked 12th in strikeouts in the league, gives Crochet a good chance to keep getting a lot of strikeouts. While he had a tough game against the Cincinatti Reds, there's no sign that it means his abilities are getting worse.
In his last game, even though Crochet gave up 5 runs and 8 total base runners, partly due to bad luck with leaving runners on base, he still struck out 10 Reds hitters in just 4.2 innings. Notably, his performance resulted in an impressive 2.27 FIP, showing that he did better than the surface statistics suggest.
Crochet has a strong fastball, rated highly with a 107 Stuff+ rating, which allows him to make batters miss in the strike zone. Additionally, his slider, with a 135 Stuff+ rating, has been effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Overall, Crochet's range of skills puts him in a good position to take advantage of the Phillies' tendency to strike out and carry on his success on the mound.
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