On April 3, a big 9-game NBA schedule will keep me busy, but let’s make it more fun with some AI-recommended player prop bets featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo who is expected to grab 14 rebounds or more and Donovan Mitchell who is predicted to score less than 22.5 points.
Giannis has a great chance to grab a lot of rebounds against the Memphis Grizzlies which is important for the Milwaukee Bucks who want to keep their No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, especially since they are missing some key players due to injuries.
Meanwhile, Mitchell wants to get back on track after dealing with injuries since the All-Star break. Let's explore our dfsPro model’s suggested bets and the reasoning behind them!
NBA Player Props for April 3
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 13.5 Rebounds (+102) – Caesars
While the Bucks can’t reach first place in the Eastern Conference, they still need to win as many games as possible to stay ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
There's both good and bad news for the Bucks (and Giannis) in this matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. The bad news is that Milwaukee will be without Damian Lillard (groin), Khris Middleton (ankle), and Patrick Beverley (ankle).
The good news is that the Bucks are playing against Memphis, which is one of the worst NBA teams due to their terrible injury luck. Unless the shorthanded Bucks can quickly dominate Memphis in the first half of the game, Giannis Antetokounmpo will play his usual amount.
Giannis has gotten 14 or more rebounds in the last 5 games, averaging 17 rebounds in 38.7 minutes per game during that streak. The Grizzlies have also allowed opponents to grab the second-most rebounds per game against them this season, mainly due to injuries and inconsistent lineups. Our AI model predicts that Antetokounmpo will end up with 15.6 rebounds, 4 more than his average (+34.48%).
Donovan Mitchell Under 22.5 Points (-110) – DraftKings
Since the 2024 NBA All-Star break, Mitchell has been unable to find his groove due to sustaining 2 different injuries, including a bruised left knee and a broken nose.
In the 7 games he has been available, Mitchell has only averaged 16.9 points per game while shooting 37.1% from the field. He has been below 22.5 points in 6 of those 7 games. Mitchell's shot attempts have also been significantly lower than usual, averaging only 13.9 field goal attempts per game.
Our dfsPro model predicts that Mitchell will only score 16.6 points, 10.2 points below (-38.06%) his season average of 26.8. Phoenix’s perimeter defense has limited opposing shooting guards to the 10th-fewest points per game in the NBA, so we shouldn't expect him to break free from this slow streak in this game.
One Last Thought
The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Milwaukee. In fact, they even won at home earlier this season despite missing several starters, including Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and others.
However, even though they were expected to win by a lot, the Bucks just lost to the Washington Wizards. This game could be an opportunity for Milwaukee to bounce back as they urgently try to keep ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers for second place in the Eastern Conference.
Our AI-powered model suggests that the betting line for the Grizzlies vs. Bucks game should be closer to 13.5 in favor of Milwaukee. If you find Milwaukee at -12, it might be a good idea to consider it.
Even though March Madness is coming to an end, I will still provide daily coverage of the NBA, so stay updated with the daily dfsPro bets and picks!
