A recent poll provides insights into two upcoming Ontario byelections that could test Bonnie Crombie and Doug Ford.
Two ridings in southwestern Ontario have been vacant since their representatives resigned to pursue other opportunities.
The Progressive Conservative government will need to call byelections for both Lambton-Kent-Middlesex and Milton, with the deadline for the first riding expected to be Wednesday.
Recent polling indicates that the Tories are leading in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, while the race in Milton seems to be very close.
Polls conducted by Liason Strategies found the PCs ahead at 32 per cent in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, with the Liberals and PCs neck-and-neck at 29 and 30 per cent respectively in Milton.
The two ridings will be the first tests for both the Liberal and Progressive Conservative campaign machines since Crombie was elected as Liberal leader at the end of 2023.
Milton
A contest will need to be called in Milton after former minister Parm Gill stepped down to run for federal government under Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party banner at the start of the year.
Crombie considered running in the seat for weeks before the party selected a local candidate.
Liaison Strategies polling shows local voters are evenly split between Crombie’s Liberals and Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, with 30 per cent opting for the Tories and 29 per cent for the Liberals.
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said that Milton was a close race in the 2022 election, with the Ford Tories winning by only four per cent.
Gill won 43 per cent of the popular vote in the last election, with his Ontario Liberal rival netting 39 per cent. The NDP garnered 10 per cent of the vote.
“Among all voters, the PCs hold a razor-thin one-per cent lead, while among those decided and leaning, the Liberals and Tories are tied at 39 per cent each,” Valentin continued.
“This is the kind of riding Bonnie Crombie needs to win if she’s going to form a government. Conversely, if Doug Ford and the PCs can hold onto seats like Milton, it bodes well for re-election.”
The Progressive Conservatives have nominated Zee Hamid as their candidate, and the Liberals have selected Galen Naidoo Harris.
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
The riding of Lambdon-Kent-Middlesex has been vacant since former minister Monte McNaughton resigned his seat in the fall of 2023.
The seat has been held by the Progressive Conservatives since 2011 and was won comfortably by McNaughton in the last election, with 59 per cent of the vote.
The current polls indicate that the Conservative Party is in a strong position, but their support has decreased compared to the last time.
Valentin mentioned that the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex area is leaning towards the Conservative Party.
It's not unexpected in a place where the Progressive Conservatives have had a lot of support for a long time, but their support has decreased by 20 points. Some of this decrease was probably unavoidable; their longtime representative, Monte McNaughton, is no longer running, and byelections are sometimes a way for voters to send a message to the governing party.
According to the Liason Strategies poll, the Progressive Conservatives have 32 percent support, the Liberals have 21 percent, and the NDP have dropped to 11 percent. The Ontario Green Party has 8 percent support.
The Progressive Conservatives have chosen local councillor Steve Pinsonneault as their candidate in the constituency, while the Liberals have selected Cathy Burghardt-Jesson, who also comes from the local government.
The NDP has named Kathryn Shailer as their candidate.
A test of leadership
The Ford government has faced setbacks in previous byelections since being re-elected in 2022.
All four byelections held after the last election have resulted in opposition MPPs being sent to Queen’s Park. Most recently, the Ontario Greens won Kitchener Centre from the NDP, and the Ontario Liberals took Kanata–Carleton from former PC cabinet minister Merrilee Fullerton.
Valentin stated that the upcoming two byelections will provide an opportunity for both the Crombie Liberals and the Ford Conservatives to test their criticisms of each other and see if a barrage of mutual criticism is influencing public opinion.
Valentin stated, “We will gain valuable insights from these byelections as the parties try out their campaign messages.”
“These will be the first elections conducted with Bonnie Crombie as the new leader. Both constituencies will provide important information as we approach the 2026 Ontario election,” Valentin said.
METHODOLOGY
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex: Liaison surveyed a random sample of 403 Lambton-Kent-Middlesex voters through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) from March 27-28, 2024. The margin of error for this survey is ±4.88 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Milton: Liaison surveyed a random sample of 451 Milton voters through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) from March 27-28, 2024. The margin of error for this survey is ±4.62 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Responses were adjusted using demographic and geographic information to targets based on the 2021 Census. The poll surveyed just over 400 voters in the two constituencies. It had a margin of error of +/- 4.88 percent in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex and 4.62 percent in Milton.
