The majority of NFL experts foresee the Chicago Bears picking USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the top pick, but some of his player comparisons are not as positive as the team had hoped.
Bill Connelly of ESPN wrote player comparisons for Williams on Monday, April 1, and the two names he came up with were Zach Wilson of the New York Jets and Sam Ehlinger of the Indianapolis Colts.
Williams’ stats are better than both, but all three were stellar from the perspective of efficient and risk-free passes, and all three took at least 2.9 seconds per pass to throw. Williams was far more willing than Wilson to take the quick, easy passes when they presented themselves, and while Williams was a willing scrambler at times, he was more reserved than Ehlinger in this regard. But Wilson and Ehlinger were the closest to this unique recipe of patience and playmaking.
If there’s a reason for doubting Williams, it’s that Wilson, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, has never been able to turn the patience-and-playmaking thing into success at the next level. Safe to say, neither has Ehlinger.
Caleb Williams’ Player Comps Zach Wilson, Sam Ehlinger Both 3rd-String Options After 3 NFL Seasons
GettyQuarterback Zach Wilson of the New York Jets.
The Jets chose Wilson No. 2 overall in 2021 from BYU, signing him to a four-year contract worth $35 million. Since then, New York has benched Wilson multiple times and allowed him to look for a trade this offseason, as Aaron Rodgers is set to start for the team, which recently signed Tyrod Taylor to a two-year deal worth $12 million to be the backup QB.
The Colts have also put Ehlinger — a sixth-round pick in 2021 — to a third-string spot. Indy drafted QB Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 pick last year and signed Joe Flacco to back him up in 2024 after losing Gardner Minshew to the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency.
That any analyst would compare Williams to two draft picks who have become less important for their current teams after just three years in the NFL is worrying, to say the least. However, Connelly’s player comparisons for Williams are much more positive.
Caleb Williams Compared to Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson in Professional Comps
GettyKansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Connelly was much more forgiving — even complimentary — when providing a second section on Williams’ professional comparisons. There, he named Super Bowl champions Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson as the two players most similar to the Bears’ potential top pick.
“I looked for NFL QBs from 2014-23 who (a) took at least 2.7 seconds per pass, (b) produced at least a 3.0 TD-to-INT ratio, (c) threw at least 25% of their passes at or behind the line, (d) completed at least 63% of their career passes and (e) averaged at least 11.5 yards per completion,” Connelly wrote. “That’s a pretty Williams-esque combination, and it gave us two of the best quarterbacks of the last decade. If there’s a reason to make him the No. 1 pick, that’s a pretty good one.”
Mahomes has been a Pro Bowler five times, an All-Pro selection twice, appeared in four Super Bowls and won three of them. Wilson, meanwhile, is a nine-time Pro Bowler who has played in two Super Bowls and earned one ring.
If Williams ends up even half as successful as either Mahomes or Wilson, the Bears will have done well with their first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
