Buzz has been steadily increasing the New England Patriots will choose Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy third overall in the 2024 NFL draft, but the Pats “should be running to the podium” for North Carolina passer Drake Maye, instead.
That’s the opinion of The 33rd Team’s Marcus Mosher. He acknowledges the Patriots taking McCarthy “has been the scuttlebutt around the league, but we aren’t buying it.”
Mosher’s not convinced because “Drake Maye is the superior quarterback prospect.”
If Maye lives up to that billing, he can be the answer to New England’s search for a new franchise QB. A search that’s gone nowhere since Tom Brady walked away from the team in 2020.
Drake Maye a Logical Pick Over J.J. McCarthy
There’s logic to the Patriots wasting little time calling Maye’s name. He’s well within their range, with the Chicago Bears tipped to select Caleb Williams first overall, before the Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels.
Maye is the next biggest name among this year’s quarterback class. He’s earned the status after a final season with the Tar Heels that yielded 24 touchdown passes, compared to just nine interceptions, per Sports Reference.
Although his numbers were down from 2022, Maye’s arm strength remained elite. Evidenced by a career big-time throw rate of 8.2 percent, the second-highest attributed by PFF College since 2014.
Putting that number into a more specific context, Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema rates Maye as the best in class throwing over the middle. He focused on “throws of 10-20 yards downfield and between the numbers.”
Sikkema found that Maye “led the nation with 61 first downs targeting that area and had a strong 132.8 quarterback rating.”
Those statistics are good news for the newest member of the Patriots’ receiving corps, K.J. Osborn. He’s arrived from the Minnesota Vikings on a one-year deal worth $4 million after being productive “on crossers and digs” last season, according to Taylor Kyles of Patriots on CLNS.
Osborn isn’t the only Patriots wideout capable of thriving between the hashmarks. The same can be said of Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeMario Douglas.
Putting Maye, and what Sikkema calls his “NFL-caliber velocity,” into an offense with these receivers would expand a previously pedestrian passing game. That’s the theory, anyway, but a lot hinges on how the Patriots compare Maye to McCarthy.
J.J. McCarthy to Patriots Rumors Grow, but Drake Maye the Safer Choice
Conversations between Mike Sando of The Athletic and six unnamed executives from around the league added fuel to the McCarthy and Patriots rumors. Sando noted that while all of the execs asked believe the Pats will draft a QB, “Maye was the choice more by default than because anyone thought New England was particularly high on him.”
Instead, one general manager involved in these conversations explained why Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf might select McCarthy: “I think they go quarterback. Do they take a shot at J.J.? Eliot won’t be afraid to if he believes in the player.”
Whether Wolf believes in McCarthy enough to use the third-overall pick might depend on how he judges the talent around him at Michigan.
As Jeff Bell from FootballGuys said that McCarthy had more resources to work with, so he was asked to do less compared to Maye: "Except for Tez Walker, I don't know any North Carolina player who is playing for Michigan. One player was required to be the entire team, while the other simply had to avoid making mistakes."
That’s a matter of opinion, but because Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported that none of the Patriots, Bears, and Commanders “have shown an interest in trading one of those picks,” Wolf would have to take a relatively bold step to select McCarthy.
It would be a significant gamble for Wolf in his first year as the de facto GM of the Patriots. Wolf and rookie head coach Jerod Mayo already have a difficult task ahead of them as they replace six-time Super Bowl winner Bill Belichick.
Taking a chance on another Michigan QB might be tempting after the huge success of the 199th pick in 2000 with Brady. However, Wolf and Mayo would be wise to be cautious with such an important draft pick.
