Strikeout prop bets are very popular in baseball betting. These bets involve guessing if a starting pitcher will exceed or fall short of a certain number of strikeouts in a game.
Below are some strikeout prop bets recommended by our AI-driven dfsPro model for the games on May 7. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets.
Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140, DraftKings)
Kutter Crawford has been consistently performing well, with a 32.8% chase rate and a 24.2% strikeout percentage. He also has impressive stats with a .209 expected batting average and a 2.93 expected ERA for the Boston Red Sox this season. Despite the Atlanta Braves being known for their strong offense, they've been struggling recently, especially against right-handed pitchers. In the last month, their offensive performance ranks 5th in strikeout rate at 25.5%, 19th in batting average at .228, 22nd in walk rate at 8.0%, and 22nd in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) at 67.
Kutter has shown the ability to consistently pitch deep into games, throwing no less than 84 pitches and maxing out at 100. He has covered this line in 23 out of 26 starts (86%) when reaching the 80+ pitch mark, and the 5.5 run line in 16 out of 26 starts (62%).
Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-175, DraftKings)
Randy Vasquez is making only his third start of the season, facing the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. In his limited appearances this year, he has only managed 3 and 2 strikeouts, respectively. Throughout his career, he has consistently trended towards the under, with 6 out of 7 starts falling below. Notably, he hasn't surpassed 3 strikeouts in a game since May of last year during his time with the New York Yankees.
While the Cubs have struck out slightly more than average this season, their recent performance against right-handed pitchers has improved. Over the past week, they've posted a 16.0% strikeout rate against righties, ranking them 16th in MLB during this period.
Vasquez's pitch count management has been unpredictable, as seen in his recent outing where he was pulled after just 72 pitches, despite a decent performance in the challenging environment of Coors Field. This suggests that if Vasquez encounters trouble, especially around the 4th or 5th inning, there's a possibility of an early exit from tonight's game.
Lock of the Day
Jose Butto Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
The St. Louis Cardinals lineup has five hitters with a strikeout rate of 25% or higher, and two more hovering around 20%. Only Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan have a strikeout rate below 19%.
Jose Butto has been nearly dominant in the strikeout department this season, exceeding 4 strikeouts in 4 out of 5 starts. The only miss came against the same Cardinals team, but it was an unusual performance with 15 swing and misses resulting in only 4 strikeouts. In his other two games with 15 or more swings and misses, he recorded 9 and 6 strikeouts respectively.
His present miss rate puts him in the 91st percent, with a strikeout rate at 76%, confirming his argument for going beyond this relatively low mark.
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