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Player props add extra excitement to betting on sports games. They give helpful insights into a player's ability to do well in daily fantasy baseball or when betting on a sportsbook you like.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model has identified several individual performances to watch during the games on May 3. Let's look at some of the best MLB player proposition bets we like based on our statistical analysis from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Proposition Bets
George Kirby Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150, DraftKings)
George Kirby has an impressive ability to consistently throw strikes, ranking in the top 4% for walk percentage this season, and he was even in the top 1% last season. Despite an ERA of 4.18 to start the season, his underlying metrics suggest he's due for positive improvement, with the 3rd-best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among starting pitchers at 2.12 and an expected ERA (XERA) of 2.99.
This matchup against the Houston Astros seems favorable. They rank 27th in walk percentage and slightly above league average in OPS and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 games. However, they're currently seeing the 2nd-lowest pitches per plate appearance (PPA) in the MLB and have the 2nd-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching.
So, we have a pitcher known for throwing a lot of strikes against a team that doesn't often strike out and tends to put the ball in play early and frequently. The only situation where I don't see Kirby reaching 6 innings in this matchup is if he gives up a lot of runs and gets pulled earlier than expected. Nonetheless, considering his impressive metrics, I'm okay with this play even if that happens.
Dylan Cease Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
I'm interested in a good opportunity for a comeback, especially for a pitcher like Dylan Cease. In his last outing, he faced a tough Philadelphia Phillies lineup, currently ranking 1st in OPS and 3rd in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 games.
However, this upcoming matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks presents a different situation. They rank in the bottom five in both OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 games and are second worst in both categories over the last 30 games.
Despite his recent struggles, Cease has stayed below this line in 5 out of 6 starts this season, boasting a solid 3.4 Expected Earned Run Average (XERA) and a 2.86 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).
It's important to note that Cease has usually faced lines set at 1.5 ERA heavily favoring the over or 2.5 ERA heavily favoring the under in most games this season. This line, hovering near even odds at 2.5, seems to be an overreaction to his last start, especially considering the favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks.
Lock of the Day
Tanner Houck Over 16.5 Outs (-130, DraftKings)
This seems like one of the most promising plays available. Tanner Houck has consistently exceeded this mark in 5 out of his last 6 games this season, with the lone miss coming by a slim margin. His performance has been outstanding, boasting a 1.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while consistently throwing over 90 pitches in his last five outings.
Although the Minnesota Twins have been hitting well recently, it’s important to note that Houck has been consistently good all year. Despite the Twins having the 6th lowest Batting Average Against (BAA) when facing right-handed pitchers, Houck has been dependable. Additionally, considering the Boston Red Sox used a bullpen game recently, it’s probable they’ll count on Houck to pitch a few innings and maintain his efficiency, a skill he’s shown all season. His average of only 3.6 pitches per plate appearance is one of the lowest in the MLB.
Houck’s ability to limit walks and make hitters hit ground balls is another advantage for him. Because quick innings are important, Houck seems ready to deliver a strong performance and help secure this bet.
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