First 5 inning bets have become very popular because they offer less risk and more predictability. This is because you have a clearer view of the starting pitchers for those first innings and don't have to worry as much about the bullpen's performance.
Below are a couple F5 bets our AI-powered dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 3.
MLB First 5 Bets
F5 Result: Boston Red Sox -0.5 (+114, DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins The starting pitcher Chris Paddack has struggled this season with a high ERA, frequent home runs allowed, and a high WHIP. While some statistics suggest he’s been unlucky, his performance against left-handed batters, who are common in the Boston Red Sox lineup, raises concerns. Additionally, the Red Sox have been in excellent form against right-handed pitchers recently, ranking high in various offensive metrics and performing well against Paddack’s main pitches.
On the other hand, while the Twins have a solid offense overall against right-handed pitchers, they have notably struggled in the early innings but excel later in the game. Recent games have seen them struggle against quality pitching, and injuries to key hitters like Bryon Buxton further weaken their lineup.
Tanner Houck, who has performed well against the Twins in the past, is in peak form, with impressive statistics across the board. His ability to strike out batters, limit walks, and induce ground balls makes him a formidable opponent for the Twins.
F5 Result: Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 (-115, DraftKings)
I’m eyeing the Tampa Bay Rays 1st five innings run line against the New York Mets, particularly with the favorable odds currently available. The movement in the money line today suggests increasing confidence in the Rays’ chances.
Jose Quintana, despite a seemingly solid ERA, shows signs of regression, especially considering his struggles on the road. While the Rays have faced tough left-handed pitching recently, their historical performance against lefties at home suggests they still pose a threat.
Aaron Civale’s performance this season hasn’t been up to par, and there seems to be some overreaction to his last two starts. His stats on the surface aren’t impressive: a 5.06 ERA, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings, and a 1.31 WHIP.
However, looking deeper, his expected ERA (xERA) and expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) paint a much better picture, suggesting he’s performed significantly better than his surface stats indicate. Additionally, his high home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB%) is likely to regress positively soon.
In his upcoming game against the Mets, who have struggled against right-handed pitchers lately, Civale could find success. Over the last ten games against righties, the Mets’ offense has been lackluster, posting a combined ERA of 1.43, allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings, and a 1.06 WHIP.
During this stretch, the Mets rank 19th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), 20th in on-base plus slugging (OPS), and 21st in on-base percentage (OBP) against right-handed pitching.
NRFI of the Day
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-120, DraftKings)
In the Detroit Tigers versus New York Yankees The matchup between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees may see fewer runs scored in the first inning despite the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and the strong Yankees offense. The over/under for runs set at 7.5 suggests a chance to consider betting on under 0.5 runs in the 1st inning.
Factors contributing to the lower scoring expectation include the relatively cool temperatures around 60 degrees and winds blowing in from right field at 10 mph, which typically reduces home run production. Both starting pitchers, Marcus Stroman for the Yankees and Reese Olson for the Tigers, have shown strong performances.
Stroman is skilled at getting ground balls from left-handed hitters, which is advantageous against the Tigers’ mostly left-handed top of the lineup. Additionally, Stroman has a history of delivering NRFIs in most of his outings this season.
On the other hand, Olson will face a tough Yankees lineup, but he has shown respectable numbers with a solid SIERA and xERA. Despite a moderate strikeout rate, Olson’s ability to produce ground balls, especially against right-handed batters, suggests he can handle tough matchups effectively.
Considering the pitchers’ performances, the game environment, and historical trends, betting on under 0.5 runs in the first inning seems like a reasonable choice for this matchup.
