On paper, the Denver Broncos trading for Zach Wilson isn’t a wise bet. In three seasons with the New York Jets, he completed 57% of his passes and had more interceptions (25) than touchdown throws (23). However, the low-risk investment could pay off if he shows improvement under Sean Payton.
While Wilson hasn’t met expectations, FOX Sports NFL analyst Mark Schlereth will still bet on Wilson over the other quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL draft. The former Broncos offensive guard believes that Wilson’s talent exceeds that of most of the quarterbacks waiting to be drafted.
Schlereth told co-host Mike Evans on the April 24 episode of DenverSports.com’s ‘Schlereth and Evans,’ ‘But I guarantee you if we’re just evaluating talent, do I think he’s more talented than pretty much every guy in this draft? Yes, I do.’
With Evans surprised by his co-host’s statement, Schlereth added, ‘Oh, heck yes … Arm talent, athleticism, absolutely, without question.’
Regarding Zach Wilson, @DenverSportsCom & @NFLonFOX’s @markschlereth says this to @MikeEvans1043:
“If we're just evaluating talent, do I think he's more talented than pretty much every guy in this draft? Yep, I do." pic.twitter.com/lAQLsAsvRj
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) April 24, 2024
Schlereth’s assessment mirrors what NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein observed about Zach Wilson before the 2021 NFL draft. Listed under the former BYU quarterback’s strengths were ‘deep and intermediate accuracy was outstanding’ and ‘athletic play extender with big-play mindset outside the pocket.’
However, Zierlein assigned Wilson a 6.5 prospect grade, signaling boom-or-bust potential. Unfortunately for the Jets, the latter outcome occurred. He won only 12 of 33 starts and led the league in lost fumbles (7) in 2023.
Advanced Stats Highlight Wilson’s Disastrous NFL Career
GettyZach Wilson spent his first three NFL seasons with the New York Jets.
Wilson’s game footage shows a highly regarded quarterback who struggled to succeed in the NFL. Aside from his inability to adjust against better defenders, other factors beyond his control came into play. He had to play in hostile environments while dealing with issues on their offensive line. Having two offensive coordinators in three seasons didn’t help either.
While those reasons are speculative, the numbers don’t lie. As a consolation, his 58.2 overall grade from Pro Football Focus for 2023 is higher than his 46.6 mark in 2022. Unfortunately, he had seven games with an overall rating of lower than 60 last season.
Meanwhile, RBSDM.com reports that Wilson had the worst expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.220) and the lowest success rate in dropbacks (38.6%) among starting quarterbacks with at least 320 plays in 2023.
Regarding the same stats, DenverSports.com senior writer Andrew Mason wrote on April 23, ‘There have also been just eight single seasons since 2021 in which a quarterback had an EPA/play below minus-.090 and a success rate below 40 percent. Wilson is responsible for three of them.’
These numbers justify why Wilson found a new team days before the 2024 draft. He had no takers, even if the Jets allowed him to seek a trade as early as February. According to ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter, the Jets had to split Wilson’s $5.5 million 2024 earnings with the Broncos to finalize the transaction.
An NFL expert thinks that Wilson will get help from Sean Payton's guidance
GettyDenver Broncos head coach Sean Payton
The small number of interested teams shows how the league sees Zach Wilson. The Jets had to pay and trade to get him off their team.
However, in the April 23 edition of ‘Pro Football Talk,’ NBC Sports analyst Chris Simms thinks that playing for Payton will be a good situation for the Utah native. ‘Now, he gets to be with a guy like Sean Payton, who is a quarterback expert. He’s going to work on his technique and thought process. He’s going to teach him things that he just, quite honestly, hasn’t learned from some people yet.’
To sum up the successful work Payton has done over the years, Mason wrote in the same article for Denver Sports, ‘Fixing Zach Wilson and turning him into a capable starting quarterback would need perhaps the most amazing job ever completed by Sean Payton, whose past includes the revivals of quarterbacks such as Kerry Collins, Teddy Bridgewater and a post-labrum-tear Drew Brees. But all operated at much higher levels compared to their time than Zach Wilson.’
Even Russell Wilson got better under Payton’s coaching despite their disagreements. But even with Zach Wilson in the mix, the Broncos might still think about picking a quarterback and possibly moving up to get a top-level prospect.
