Player props add extra excitement to betting on sports games. They give helpful insights into how well a player may perform in daily fantasy baseball or when making bets on your favorite sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model forecasts several individual performances to watch during today‘s games. Let’s explore some of our preferred MLB player proposition bets for April 24. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Joe Ryan Under 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+135, DraftKings)
Joe Ryan is up against the Chicago White Sox today, who are 9th in strikeout percentage and provide a fairly average matchup. However, what makes this matchup interesting is Ryan’s history against the current White Sox batters. With only 10 strikeouts in 57 at-bats, Ryan has a very low 17.54% strikeout percentage against them. According to this rate, Ryan would need to face around 39.9 batters to meet this line, compared to his average of 22.6 batters faced.
In addition to this favorable matchup, Ryan has consistently met or fallen below this line in 74% of his games since 2022, averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game. This suggests a strong chance of Ryan continuing his trend of success against the White Sox lineup.
Bryce Miller Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
Bryce Miller faces a tough matchup against the Texas Rangers, who currently have the 2nd-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. Additionally, Miller has only been able to strike out 3 out of 27 at-bats plus walks against current Rangers batters, resulting in an extremely low strikeout percentage of 11.11%. Based on this percentage, Miller would need to face an estimated 45 batters to exceed this threshold. Interestingly, he has fallen short of this mark in both previous matchups against the Rangers in his career, recording two strikeouts in each game.
Despite this challenging matchup, Miller has a strong track record in away games, with an overall 42% hit rate. Therefore, while this matchup presents a tough challenge, Miller’s success away from home provides a layer of hope for his performance.
Lock of the Day
Paul DeJong Under 0.5 Hits (-145, DraftKings)
Paul DeJong has consistently struggled with a low expected batting average (xBA), ranking in the bottom 10% for 4 consecutive seasons and bottom 5% for 3 out of those 4. This season, he’s batting .216 with an xBA of .179 and a high strikeout rate of 40.7%.
Examining his performance against right-handed pitchers over the past few years, in 2023, he managed a .203 batting average with a 30% strikeout rate. In 2022, his batting average against righties dropped to .159 with a 31% strikeout rate. However, in 2021, he performed slightly better with a .207 batting average and a 23% strikeout rate.
Facing Joe Ryan adds to DeJong’s challenge, as Ryan has displayed impressive stats, ranking in the 88th percentile for strikeout rate and 74th percentile for xBA in 2023. Additionally, this season, Ryan has improved even further with a 32.3% strikeout rate (88th percentile) and a .184 xBA (89th percentile). He’s particularly effective against right-handed batters, holding them to a .179 batting average in his 4 starts in 2024. Although he faced some struggles last year, his performance in the 2 years prior suggests a return to form.
Also, the Minnesota Twins relief pitchers, who DeJong will likely face later in the game, have the highest rate of striking out, the 11th lowest opponent batting average, and the 5th best ERA up to now in 2024.
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