New polling from NBC News indicates that RFK Jr. greatly reduces Donald Trump’s backing among Republican voters.
Via NBC News:
Trump is ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points in a one-on-one competition, 46% to 44%, according to the recent NBC News survey.
But when the ballot includes five named candidates, Biden holds a 2-point lead: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3%, and Cornel West 2%.
The main reason is that the poll discovers a larger proportion of Trump supporters in the one-on-one contest favoring Kennedy in the expanded ballot. 15% of respondents who initially chose Trump opt for Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared to 7% of those who initially chose Biden.
In addition, Republican voters have a much more favorable view of Kennedy (40% positive, 15% negative) than Democratic voters do (16% positive, 53% negative).
The survey has a margin of error of 3.1%, rendering a two-point lead for Trump insignificant.
Video:
Something interesting in the new NBC News Poll. Forget the specific numbers because they are meaningless. The poll shows that RFK Jr, hurts Trump more than Biden. There is a swing toward Biden when RFK Jr is factored into the race. pic.twitter.com/kZl9qmBcuM
— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) April 21, 2024
There are two noteworthy numbers. Joe Biden has increased by five points since the last NBC News poll, which exceeds the 3.1-point margin of error, and the four-point swing involving RFK Jr. also exceeds the margin of error.
The trend indicates that President Biden’s advancing momentum is genuine, and RFK Jr. poses a significant challenge for Donald Trump.
Biden’s supporters appear more committed than Trump’s, and if the former president is criminally convicted, he could witness a loss of support. It is plausible that Trump's support could drop to the thirties and return to his core MAGA base if he faces criminal conviction.
Fox News, Newsmax, and Trump promoted RFK Jr. on the belief that any member of the Kennedy family would draw support away from Biden, but RFK Jr. is detrimental to Trump. Despite members of his own campaign emphasizing the objective of restoring Trump to the White House, it is Republicans, not Democrats, who are embracing the RFK Jr. campaign.
Trump lacks funds. and is not putting much effort into the campaign, and now he has a third-party candidate siphoning votes away from him.
RFK Jr. backfires on Trump and could result in Biden's re-election.
