The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West over the past ten years, winning the division eight consecutive times since the 2016 season. And with each of their division rivals changing coaching staffs recently, the AFC West seems to be the Chiefs' to lose unless something changes.
That brings us to KC’s greatest draft “nightmare” in 2024, according to the opinion of Bleacher Report analyst Brad Gagnon on April 19.
“[Kansas City’s worst draft scenario is that] the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos both pick high-potential quarterbacks in Round 1, immediately making life much harder in this division,” Gagnon expressed.
For most teams, this draft nightmare involved potential targets being gone or bust prospects that might be selected. But with the Chiefs, there are very few scenarios that prevent them from being a Super Bowl contender, so Gagnon’s choice actually makes a lot of sense.
The biggest threat to Patrick Mahomes and KC is the next elite quarterback joining the division — whoever that may be. Remember, Mahomes was only chosen 10th overall in the draft. In 2024, the Broncos and Raiders hold pick Nos. 12 and 13.
Raiders Appear to Be Top Immediate Threat to Chiefs in AFC West
When you look at this division heading into the NFL draft, the Raiders are the team that looks to be the closest to playoff contention.
The Los Angeles Chargers are in the midst of a roster overhaul with Jim Harbaugh taking over the organization. Granted, they have their franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert, but it might take a season or two for Harbaugh to build a team around him.
Then there’s the Broncos, who just pulled the plug on the Russell Wilson experiment earlier this offseason. Head coach Sean Payton has a history of developing quarterbacks — and he’s expected to draft one in 2024 — but the Denver cap situation is in dire straits until the Broncos front office rids themselves of Wilson’s contract long-term.
Finally, you have the Raiders. Under new head coach Antonio Pierce in 2023, Las Vegas defeated the Chiefs on Christmas Day, holding them to just 14 points.
Since then, the Raiders added star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins alongside star pass rusher Maxx Crosby. And with a decent amount of talent already on the roster — namely wide receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, left tackle Kolton Miller and 2023 first-round edge rusher Tyree Wilson among others.
No one’s calling Las Vegas a Super Bowl contender at this time, but they might be a star quarterback away from turning into a serious challenger. The rival signed journeyman signal-caller Gardner Minshew to presumably start in 2024, but they’re also another candidate to draft a rookie QB next weekend.
J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix & Bo Nix Profile as Top QB Options for Broncos & Raiders in NFL Draft
So, who are the quarterback names that represent these “nightmare” scenarios for the Chiefs? Most expect USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye to come off the board well before the Broncos or Raiders are on the clock.
Unless there's a big trade to move up to the top three or four picks, the best draft choices for the AFC West rivals would likely be J.J. McCarthy from Michigan, Michael Penix from Washington, and Bo Nix from Oregon.
McCarthy is also a possible top 10 pick in 2024, although his final draft position is still being debated.
The most probable quarterback prospects to enter the division are likely Penix and Nix. Penix has been one of the more accurate college throwers in the country over the last couple of seasons, but his draft stock has been affected by injury history and less mobility.
On the other hand, Nix is a true dual threat at the quarterback position, but he's a bit older and there are doubts about whether his game will succeed at the professional level.
A sleeper pick might be South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler. Recognized for his exceptional arm, Rattler was once considered a top college recruit.
Even though he experienced significant highs and lows during his time at Oklahoma and South Carolina, Rattler could be one of the most skilled throwers in this year’s draft class.
