JERUSALEM — When Israel started its battle against Hamas last October, the country was united at home and had a lot of support from around the world after a major attack by the Islamic militant group.
Now, six months later, Israel is in a very different situation: stuck in Gaza, divided internally, isolated globally, and increasingly disagreeing with its closest friend. The chance of a bigger regional war is still real.
Even though Israel’s strong military attack, Hamas is still there, although weaker. The attack has caused a serious problem in Gaza, with more than 80% of the population being forced to move and over 1 million people being close to starving. Despite this, Israel hasn't shown a plan for after the war that others agree with, and talks to stop fighting are not progressing.
Here are six important things we learned from the first six months of the war.
Stalemate on the battlefield
Israel declared war because of Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, when the militant group killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped about 250 others.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had two goals: getting rid of Hamas and bringing back the hostages. Even though he kept saying he would have “total victory,” he hasn’t achieved his goals.
After gaining control over most of Gaza in a difficult attack, Israeli ground troops are now waiting, doing small operations, and not sure whether they will go into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where Hamas is strong.
Netanyahu has said many times that he will go into Rafah, but there is a lot of international opposition, including from the United States, because there are hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who had to leave their homes and are now staying there. Netanyahu says he has a plan to get them out but it’s not clear if it’s ready or if the Americans will be happy with it.
Even if Israel goes into Rafah, it’s not certain that they will be successful in the long term. Although Hamas seems to have lost a lot of people, they have been able to group together in places where Israel left.
At the same time, Israel hasn’t been able to stop the attacks it faces from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in the north. Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah still has a lot of weapons, which means that many people on both sides of the border are in danger. The tensions have been a threat to bring in Hezbollah’s supporter, Iran, especially after an airstrike, said to be from Israel, killed two Iranian generals in Syria.
Getting more isolated
Israel received a lot of support from around the world after the Oct. 7 attack, which was the deadliest against Jews since the Holocaust. But now, that support has turned into impatience and anger as the situation in Gaza gets worse.
More than 33,000 Palestinians have died in the war, around two-thirds of them women and children, according to Palestinian health officials. International aid officials say about one-third of the people in Gaza are suffering from extreme hunger.
Israel's allies have changed their show of support to calls for a stop to the fighting. The U.N. world court, investigating claims of genocide against Israel, has instructed Israel to do more to protect Gaza's civilians.
The isolation reached its peak on March 25 when the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution for an immediate cease-fire, despite Israeli objections. Israel was angered by the U.S. allowing the resolution to pass.
The situation has worsened for Israel, especially after it unintentionally killed seven aid workers. Six of the victims were from countries allied with Israel, angering them and upsetting U.S. President Joe Biden. Israel's alleged airstrike on Iran's embassy in Syria and attempts to close the Arab satellite channel Al Jazeera have also alienated allies.
Israel is divided.
After a period of unity at the start of the war, Israel has returned to its divided state with its polarizing leader at the center.
Protests against the government have increased, drawing thousands. These protests stem from long-standing grievances against Netanyahu, from his political alliances with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties to his ongoing corruption trial. They have gained momentum from his failure to bring home the hostages. About half of the hostages were released during a weeklong cease-fire in November, but 134 remain captive.
Israel has confirmed the deaths of more than 30 hostages, but there are widespread fears that the true number is higher and will continue to rise the longer they are held.
The struggles of the hostages and the anguish of their families have deeply affected the Israeli public. Some hostage families were among the tens of thousands of people who protested this week, demanding the government's resignation. It was the largest anti-government demonstration since the war began.
Netanyahu remains in power.
Netanyahu's popularity has dropped since the war began, with many blaming him for the intelligence and security failures that led to the Oct. 7 attack. However, he has rejected calls to resign or launch investigations into the failures.
Netanyahu's rule is not immediately at risk. Currently, his coalition partners, also expecting losses in the polls, continue to support him.
Ironically, the biggest threat to Netanyahu is only indirectly related to the war. Israel's Supreme Court has ordered an end to the long-standing controversial practice of exempting ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service.
With over 600 soldiers killed since Oct. 7, Netanyahu will face difficulties maintaining this practice. However, if he tries to compel religious men to join the military, he could lose the support of his ultra-Orthodox partners and be pushed into early elections.
Anshel Pfeffer, a Haaretz columnist and author of a biography on Netanyahu, wrote: “Netanyahu is unable to feel shame or take responsibility. He has no intention of resigning voluntarily.”
Hamas is not going away
The Israeli attack has caused extensive damage in Gaza and has resulted in significant losses for Hamas. Israel asserts that it has eliminated around 13,000 Hamas fighters and disabled the group’s military capabilities in most of Gaza.
Even if these claims are accurate, Hamas remains active in Rafah, and its fighters have regrouped in areas where Israel previously claimed victory. While there have been small displays of dissatisfaction with Hamas in Gaza, there have been no widespread signs of opposition to the group.
According to Palestinian analyst Khalil Sayegh, Hamas continues to reappear, and Israel has not allowed any alternative to emerge.
Khalil Sayegh, a Palestinian analyst, said Hamas keeps reappearing and Israel hasn’t allowed any alternative to emerge.
Michael Milshtein, a former high-ranking Israeli military intelligence officer who now specializes in Palestinian studies at Tel Aviv University, says Israel faces two unappealing choices: Agree to a ceasefire deal that acknowledges Hamas has survived, or escalate the military campaign and conquer Gaza in the hope of eventually destroying Hamas.
He said hopes that the Israeli military’s current approach can destroy Hamas or force it to surrender are “wishful thinking.”
There is no agreed-upon plan for the period after the war
The future of Gaza is undetermined.
Netanyahu has outlined a vague plan that involves ongoing Israeli control of the territory, with local Palestinian partners administering daily affairs in Gaza. Israel aims for reconstruction to be funded by the international community, including wealthy Arab Gulf states.
However, these plans conflict with the visions promoted by the U.S., other international partners and the Palestinians.
The U.S. has called for the reinstatement of the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority, which was expelled from Gaza by Hamas in 2007, and for renewed efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. The PA, based in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, recently appointed a new prime minister to address American calls for reform.
Netanyahu opposes the idea of Palestinian statehood or any role for the Palestinian Authority. Furthermore, there is little enthusiasm among donor nations to contribute to reconstruction without a political agreement. For instance, the United Arab Emirates has stated that it will not fund reconstruction without a viable two-state approach.
According to Ofer Shelah, a former lawmaker who is now a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, the battlefield victories are “almost meaningless” without a diplomatic strategy.
“The genuine threat to Hamas will not be Israeli tanks or warplanes. It’s an alternative way of governing life in postwar Gaza,” he said.
