KYIV, Ukraine — On Wednesday, Ukraine decreased the age at which men can be drafted from 27 to 25, showing the pressure that more than two years of war with Russia has placed on its military and the need to bring in new recruits to make up for its depleted ranks.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved three bills aimed at strengthening the country’s struggling forces, which are working to maintain the front lines in the ongoing fighting that has weakened Ukraine’s ranks and depleted its weapons and ammunition supplies.
The new laws, which will also remove some draft exemptions and establish an online registry for recruits, could increase the military's numbers by about 50,000, according to Oksana Zabolotna, an analyst with the Center for United Actions, a government watchdog in Kyiv.
This would be a tenth of the 500,000 additional troops that Zelenskyy mentioned in December that the military aimed to mobilize. However, after signing a security agreement with Finnish President Alexander Stubb in Kyiv on Wednesday, Zelenskyy stated that an examination requested by Ukraine’s newly appointed commander-in-chief revealed that the 500,000 figure was incorrect, partly because existing troops could be moved from the rear to the front. He did not explain why that option was not previously considered.
Zelenskyy mentioned that he was not prepared to publicly announce the number of new conscripts that the Ukrainian army will require.
“I can say that Russia is getting ready to mobilize an additional 300,000 military personnel on June 1,” Zelenskyy informed reporters.
Ukrainian Defense Ministry data indicates that the country’s military had nearly 800,000 troops in October. This does not include National Guard or other units. In total, 1 million Ukrainians are in uniform, including about 300,000 who are serving on the front lines.
Mandatory military service has been a delicate issue amid Ukraine’s increasing shortages of infantry and ammunition, which have given Russia the advantage on the battlefield. Russia’s own issues with manpower and planning have so far prevented it from fully exploiting its upper hand.
Military experts say that the average age of soldiers on both sides is over 40. Some Ukrainians are concerned that reducing the minimum conscription age to 25 and taking more young adults out of the workforce could have negative consequences by further harming the war-torn economy, which is why the conscription age was not simply set at 18. However, the issue has become more urgent since Kyiv is anticipating a renewed offensive by Russian forces this spring or summer.
The Russian military reported on Wednesday that it has seen a recent increase in enlistments, attributing it to public anger over last month’s attack on a Moscow concert hall that resulted in the deaths of over 140 people. Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that about 16,000 people have signed up in the last 10 days, although this claim could not be verified independently.
An affiliate of the Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the concert hall attack, but the Kremlin has asserted, without providing evidence, that Ukraine and the West played a role, despite their strong denials.
It took Zelenskyy nearly a year to sign the law lowering the conscription age, which may indicate how unpopular such a move could be.
Antonina Piliuhina, the 49-year-old mother in Kyiv with a 21-year-old son, said she was against lowering the draft age.
“I have only one son, I am a single mother,” Piliuhina said. “What did I raise him for all these years, for him to be taken away and then killed by someone for enjoyment? I don’t want this.”
Mykola Petrovskyi, a 28-year-old social worker, expressed that while he loves Ukraine, he doesn’t believe in sending unwilling individuals to fight.
“I am not prepared to go somewhere tomorrow and harm people,” Petrovskyi explained. “It’s not because I'm not a patriot of my country, it's because I am not prepared to harm. I am not meant for this. I am a person who is prepared to aid in saving someone’s life, but not to take one.”
But Metelya, a 37-year-old soldier who used his alias due to security reasons, supported lowering the draft age. He has been involved in combat since 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine, and believes new troops are necessary.
“If an 18-year-old boy was willing to fight with us when we fought for Kyiv, then why can’t a 25-year-old adult man do the same?” he wondered.
Zabolotna, the government watchdog analyst, mentioned that even though there are about half a million men aged 25 to 27, she estimates only about 50,000 would be added to the ranks.
“Some of them are unfit for service, some have left, some are (in the) reserve or have the right to deferment,” she added.
The enactment of the law indicates that Ukraine is acknowledging the reality of being in a war of attrition and resource competition, according to Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine forum and deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Zelenskyy was optimistic for a relatively swift end to the war, she noted. However, he recognizes that Putin “is not just fighting Ukraine. His primary enemy is the United States and its presence in Eastern Europe.”
The initial enthusiasm for joining the fight against the Kremlin’s forces has diminished, although public support for the war remains high.
Currently, Ukraine prohibits men under 60 from traveling abroad. Many Ukrainian men are avoiding the draft by hiding at home or attempting to bribe their way out of the battle. Commanders indicate they do not have enough soldiers to launch offensives and barely enough to maintain positions during escalating Russian attacks.
Russia's population is more than three times larger than Ukraine's, and President Vladimir Putin has shown a readiness to compel men to the front line if there are not enough volunteers.
