After surviving a terrible 3-point shooting night in their Round of 32 game against Texas, the No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers focus on the No. 3 Creighton Bluejays. The winner secures a bid to the Elite 8 for a date with either Purdue or Gonzaga. Our AI-powered model favors some Sweet 16 bets in this matchup.
Our model indicates that Dalton Knecht will continue his outstanding performance on the boards against Creighton, while Baylor Scheierman might struggle to get good 3-point opportunities against this strong Tennessee perimeter defense.
See below the analysis for our two dfsPro projections for the Creighton vs. Tennessee game!
Sweet 16 Bets for March 29
Dalton Knecht Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100) – BetRivers
Knecht is a very reliable rebounder for his size (6-foot-6) and position (shooting guard). He has averaged just under 5 rebounds per game this season. Knecht uses his impressive vertical athleticism and strong, wide frame to effectively get rebounds.
During his 2023-24 season, Knecht has averaged just under 5 rebounds per game, helping the Vols on the defensive boards. However, they have had difficulty at times throughout the season in rebounding. In fact, they rank only 153rd in defensive rebounding percentage in the country.
Recently, Knecht has been even more active on the boards, grabbing 8 and 9 rebounds in his first 2 games of the NCAA Tournament. I anticipate him to exceed his rebounding betting line for the third consecutive game.
Creighton is 271st in offensive rebounding percentage this season, so Knecht won’t have to worry much about opponents getting rebounds after misses. The Vols’ frontcourt players will be occupied trying to prevent Ryan Kalkbrenner from getting a good position for rebounding.
Our AI-powered model predicts Knecht to finish the game with 6.4 rebounds, 1.5 more (+30.61%) than his season average of 4.9. With favorable odds, this proposition has great value.
Baylor Scheierman Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+112) – BetRivers
Tennessee’s strong perimeter defense could pose a challenge to one of the top 3-point shooters in the nation. Scheierman’s ability to make 3-pointers is clear, as he can make catch-and-shoot 3s and off-the-dribble 3s at 6-foot-7.
Throughout the season, Scheierman has made 3.1 3-pointers per game for the Creighton Bluejays, shooting an average of 37.9% from behind the arc. Creighton’s offensive style (ranked 6th in 3s attempted per game in the nation) favors players like Scheierman, who are excellent 3-point shooters.
However, Scheierman and the Bluejays will be compelled to score inside the arc against this Volunteers defense. Tennessee has limited opponents to under 24% shooting from deep so far in the NCAA Tournament, and I anticipate that trend will continue here.
Creighton’s offensive strategy is impressive, but Tennessee will do everything possible to make the Bluejays take shots inside the arc, reducing the number of opportunities Scheierman gets.
Our AI-powered model predicts Scheierman to make only 2.4 3s in this game versus Tennessee, 0.7 fewer (-22.58%) than his season average. Avoid betting on Scheierman’s 3s made in this situation.
One Final Idea
Tennessee managed to win against the Texas Longhorns in the Round of 32, despite making only 1 of their first 21 3-point tries. The Vols’ ability to still win, even with one of their worst shooting performances of the entire 2023-24 season, is a good sign for supporting them in this game against an often inconsistent Creighton team.
The Vols have limited their first 2 opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 32.7% shooting from the field and 23.4% from 3-point range, so Creighton might have trouble scoring. The Bluejays are seventh in the nation in 3-point rate, but Tennessee’s perimeter defense gives it the edge in this matchup.
As March Madness continues, keep up to date with our daily dfsPro’s Sweet 16 wagers and selections!
