Global warming and heatwaves are predicted to additionally raise food prices and overall inflation globally in the future.
This information comes from new research by scientists and the European Central Bank.
A study published on Thursday in the Journal Communications Earth and Environment said the effects will vary but will be noticeable everywhere, especially in developing countries.
More frequent extreme weather like heatwaves, droughts, and floods, due to climate change, is detrimentally affecting important parts of the economy, such as farming and food production.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank used historical price and weather data from 121 countries between 1996 and 2021 for this study.
They discovered that rising temperatures from climate change are expected to increase the global food cost by 1.49 to 1.79 percentage points annually by 2035.
The impact of future warming and heat extremes on overall inflation is projected to be between 0.76 and 0.91 percentage points under different scenarios.
Maximilian Kotz, one of the report’s authors from PIK, stated, “We have strong evidence that higher temperatures, especially in the summer or in hot regions, mainly cause price rises in food and overall inflation.”
Kotz emphasized that the impact on food prices and inflation from future warming would be most significant in already hot regions, particularly poorer and developing parts of the world.
Increased extremes
According to the study, Africa and South America would be the continents most affected.
However, Kotz noted that the northern hemisphere would also face higher prices due to climate extremes.
Kotz explained, “In those places in the northern hemisphere, mainly in the summer, that’s where those things will mainly happen. Whereas in the rest of the world, it will be more spread out across the year.”
Nevertheless, they did not find a significant influence of global warming on other household expenses, except for electricity prices.
This finding was in line with other studies showing the particular vulnerability of agriculture to climate shocks, Kotz pointed out.
The research also indicated that a major heatwave in Europe in the summer of 2022 likely caused food inflation to increase by 0.67 percentage points, with a bigger impact in southern Europe.
The report stated, “Future climate change will increase the intensity of such heat extremes, therefore also increasing their potential impact on inflation.”
AFP
