LAS VEGAS – Due to the surprising Final Four last year and the number of bids stolen in this season's conference tournaments, bettors are not likely to choose the expected winners when placing bets for the NCAA Tournament.
“Many people are interested in underdogs,” said BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee. “We've received a lot of bets on unlikely teams to win the conference tournaments. Many people enjoy taking a chance on some of these double-digit seeds.”
The First Four takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio, with the full tournament starting on Thursday.
Recent events have shown that betting on long shots can result in big winnings.
Two years ago, Saint Peter’s reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed. Last year's Final Four included San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, and Miami, which are not typically dominant teams.
Before the NCAA Tournament, underdogs dominated the conference tournaments, taking bids from teams that would have normally participated in the Big Dance. Only 11 of the 32 conference tournaments were won by the No. 1 seed.
“I believe the NCAA transfer portal is helping many mid-major teams,” said Magee. “There are numerous players at major programs who want more playing time and are willing to join smaller teams. People are beginning to see that the gap between these strong mid-majors and potentially overrated power-conference teams is narrowing.”
LACK OF SUPPORT FOR MOUNTAIN WEST
Six Mountain West teams made the tournament, but the NCAA selection committee did not give the conference favorable seedings.
Apart from San Diego State, which was placed fifth, Mountain West teams faced tough competition. Boise State and Colorado State will compete in the First Four. New Mexico would not have qualified if it hadn't won the conference tournament.
“It's undeniable that the committee was not kind to the Mountain West this year,” stated Magee. “The seeding for some of the teams seemed to say, 'Go and prove yourselves.' Utah State winning the Mountain West regular season and receiving an eight-seed is surprising. New Mexico getting an 11-seed and being on the same level as Duquesne is a whole different story.”
SUCCESS AMONG THE TOP
Sheldon Jacobson, the operator of BracketOdds, mentioned that the committee did a good job with the top four seed lines, but had difficulties beyond that.
“Many teams seemed to be seeded in various places, either being given lower or higher seedings,” said Jacobson. “Nevada, seeded tenth, was expected to be placed much higher. Florida Atlantic receiving a late seed at No. 8 was puzzling.”
Jacobson advised to keep an eye on the teams seeded 11th and 12th.
“If you look at the fifth and sixth seed lines, there are some mid-majors there,” he remarked. “As a result, there will be many unexpected matchups. This time, the tournament will feature numerous mid-major versus mid-major games rather than the usual power conferences versus mid-major matchups.”
EARLY LOVE FOR VIRGINIA
Most of the BetMGM tickets show a preference for Virginia to beat Colorado State. The Cavaliers were also the underdog with the most bets to win on the money line.
But the experts don’t believe it.
Even though the public heavily favors Virginia, Colorado State has become a 2 1/2-point favorite, up from 1 1/2, because the so-called sharps supported the Rams and they're the ones who influence the odds.
“Many people had a very negative view of Virginia after selection Sunday, so it’s surprising to see so much money coming in,” Magee said. “It’s definitely noticeable, and not what I expected, especially as a Virginia Cavalier fan.”
ODDS AND ENDS
• Bettors think UConn will be the first team since Florida in 2006-07 to win back-to-back. The Huskies have received the most money (18.3%) and tickets (10.8%) at BetMGM.
• UConn's odds to win it all at BetMGM improved from plus-1,200 to plus-400. This means a bettor who places a $100 bet could win $400 if UConn succeeds. Other significant changes include Houston going from plus-2,200 to plus-600 and Purdue from plus-1,800 to plus-650.
• At FanDuel Sportsbook, the following lower-seeded teams are favored: No. 10 Drake by 1 1/2 over No. 7 Washington State; No. 9 Michigan State by 1 1/2 over No. 8 Mississippi State; No. 10 Nevada by 1 1/2 over No. 7 Dayton; No. 11 New Mexico by 2 1/2 over No. 6 Clemson; and No. 9 TCU by 2 1/2 over No. 8 Utah State.
