It's difficult to determine the most unusual aspect of last season in the AL East.
Baltimore and Tampa Bay took the top two spots in the division for the first time ever. The Yankees and Red Sox were the bottom two teams, which hadn't happened since before the start of divisional play.
The AL East has changed a lot from when the big-market teams would overpower the rest of the division. Tampa Bay has been strong for a while, and the Orioles won 101 games and a division title in 2023 after a swift rise from a rebuild. Baltimore's young, cost-controlled talent should make them a threat for years, and now they'll defend their AL East crown.
Baltimore outfielder Austin Hays said, “We've proven to ourselves that we can win a division and go to the playoffs, so I think you can feel that in the atmosphere, how excited everyone is. Nobody's scared. Nobody's nervous.”
The Yankees won 99 games and the division two seasons ago, so their situation isn't hopeless facing the low-spending Orioles and Rays. What's different about the AL East now is that New York, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Toronto all seem evenly matched.
HOW THEY PROJECT
1. New York Yankees. After barely finishing above .500 last year, the Yankees made a major offseason move by acquiring three-time All-Star Juan Soto. A lineup with Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres is strong enough to bring New York back to the top, but their health, especially after Judge's toe issue last year, will be crucial. Soto and Torres are in their final season of team control, and manager Aaron Boone is under pressure to produce after last year's disappointment.
2. Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles haven't made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 1996-97. Now Baltimore has a chance to become a regular postseason team. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman could be among the best players in baseball at their positions, and manager Brandon Hyde should have many options when filling out the lineup. The recent trade for Corbin Burnes gave the Orioles a reliable ace. Whether Baltimore can repeat as division champions may depend on how they handle the absence of star closer Félix Bautista after Tommy John surgery. Duplicating last season's 30-16 record in one-run games will be a tough task.
3. Toronto Blue Jays. Other teams in the AL East might have felt relieved when Shohei Ohtani didn't sign with Toronto. However, the Blue Jays are still a threat, with Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, and George Springer on the team. Kevin Gausman leads all major league pitchers in the FanGraphs version of wins above replacement over the past two seasons. Toronto has made the postseason in three of the past four seasons but hasn't won a pennant since 1993.
4. Tampa Bay Rays. Don't underestimate the Rays — it's clear now that they are a force to be reckoned with. Tampa Bay had a strong 99-win season, nearly winning the AL East despite dealing with major injuries towards the end. However, they start this season with similar concerns as starting pitchers Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Spring are still recovering from injuries, and the Rays traded Tyler Glasnow during the offseason. There's also uncertainty about shortstop Wander Franco's status, as he hasn't played since August due to an investigation into accusations of an improper relationship with a minor.
5. Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have finished last in the past two seasons despite earning a not-so-bad 78 wins each time. This is the reality of life in the AL East. Boston has some strong hitters like Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, but the starting rotation still has many questions even after Brayan Bello pitched well enough to earn a long-term deal. Boston hired ex-pitcher Craig Breslow as its new chief baseball officer after last season, but he has a tough task ahead of him in the short term.
POSTSEASON WOES
Despite the impressive performance of the AL East teams in the regular season last year, none of them were able to win a playoff game. Additionally, some of these teams have been waiting a long time for significant postseason success.
The Yankees have not won a pennant since 2009, marking the franchise’s longest drought of the live ball era. Baltimore has not been to a World Series since 1983 and has now lost eight straight postseason games.
Tampa Bay and Toronto have each lost seven games in a row in the postseason.
ARM ISSUES
Some of the division’s top pitchers are starting the season with health concerns. Gerrit Cole of the Yankees was sidelined with elbow soreness during spring training, Kyle Bradish of the Orioles will miss the start of the season due to an elbow sprain, Gausman is dealing with shoulder fatigue, and McClanahan had Tommy John surgery in August.
Boston acquired Lucas Giolito this past offseason, but he is now expected to miss the season due to internal brace surgery on his arm.
