March Madness wouldn't be the same without the thrill of those early surprises in the NCAA Tournament.
The 68-team lineup will not be revealed until Sunday, but it's almost certain that one or more top teams will be knocked out early.
Purdue was heavily favored by 23 1/2 points when it was eliminated in the first round by No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year — just one of many disappointments for the Boilermakers in the tournament. Maybe it was because Purdue's guards couldn't score. Maybe Fairleigh Dickinson's small lineup troubled the Boilermakers.
Kihei Clark's famously poor pass set up JP Pegues' winning 3-point shot in No. 13 Furman's surprise victory over No. 4 Virginia last year, but the game didn't work in the Cavaliers' favor. Furman plays at a fast pace and spreads out the players on the court. Virginia plays slowly and had difficulty defending the perimeter, allowing Furman to stay competitive.
“The style of play influences the outcome of certain events if your strong points match the other team's weak points and the other team is one of those high-level seeds. That's where it becomes problematic,” said Terrence Oglesby, a Field of 68 analyst and TV commentator.
It's entertaining to consider the chances of different teams winning the national championship — at present, injury-plagued blueblood Kansas is a 35-1 underdog, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while San Diego State is at 75-1, a year after making it to the national title game. It's a different season, and a different team.
The following are some high-ranking teams that could be in danger of being defeated in the first weekend of the tournament:
ALABAMA
The Crimson Tide can prevail in a high-scoring game against anyone. The question is if they can defend well enough to win if the pace slows down, as often occurs during the tournament. Mark Sears is one of the top guards in the country, leading the most efficient and highest-scoring offense in the nation. However, they rank 342nd out of 351 teams in scoring defense.
DUKE
First off, the Blue Devils are fully capable of making it to the Final Four. They entered the ACC Tournament with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games, and most of those wins were not close. But there has been a decrease in rim protection since Derek Lively II left after last season. There has also been a late-season injury to freshman guard Caleb Foster — a part-time starter — which has left him wearing a protective boot on his right foot. A team with fast guards who can drive to the basket could pose a challenge.
IOWA STATE
The Cyclones have been excellent defensively in the three seasons under T.J. Otzelberger, and they defeated Houston, Kansas, and BYU while achieving an 18-0 record at Hilton Coliseum this season. However, almost half of those home wins came against weak nonconference opponents that boosted their NET ranking. The concern is if the Cyclones face a team that takes care of the ball and has a large, physical guard.
KANSAS
Big 12 scoring leader Kevin McCullar, big man Hunter Dickinson, and freshman Johnny Furphy are the main players in a strong starting five. However, McCullar aggravated a bone bruise in his knee and Dickinson dislocated a shoulder, causing them both to miss the Big 12 Tournament. This puts pressure on a bench that is severely lacking in depth. The Jayhawks' eight losses in conference play are their highest since 1988-89, and a program that won it all just two seasons ago went 3-7 on the road.
MARQUETTE
Marquette is another instance of how a late-season injury to an important player could be disastrous. Tyler Kolek has missed the last three games due to a strained oblique and has been ruled out of the Big East Tournament opener on Thursday. Coach Shaka Smart mentioned that Kolek will be ready for the NCAA Tournament, but will he be completely healthy? The Golden Eagles can be outstanding when he is fully healthy. They are not nearly as good otherwise. The top point guard in the United States can score 30 points with double-digit assists on any given night.
PURDUE
The Boilermakers are likely to secure another No. 1 seed and are on the list only because of their recent history: a first-round loss to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, a Sweet 16 loss to No. 15 Saint Peter’s in ‘22 and a first-round loss to No. 13 North Texas in ’21. They have been upset by a lower seed in six of their last 10 NCAA appearances. Nevertheless, this team is better than a year ago with Zach Edey once again leading the way. Perhaps this is the year Matt Painter reaches his first Final Four.