Kirk Cousins may not return to the Minnesota Vikings next season, but the urgency to re-sign him just increased after Baker Mayfield — widely considered the second best available QB in free agency this year — signed a contract to stay with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler was the first to report Mayfield’s extension, which will directly affect Minnesota’s decisions at quarterback in the upcoming days — and perhaps weeks.
“Source: #Bucs and Baker Mayfield are closing in on a three-year deal for $100 [million] total and $50 [million] guaranteed, max $115 [million],” Fowler posted to X on Sunday, March 10.
Tampa Bay and Mayfield finalized the deal later that same day, less than 24 hours before the NFL’s legal tampering period opens and impending free agents are allowed to begin negotiations with all 32 teams in the league.
Mayfield followed the news by publicly discussing the reasons for returning to the Bucs rather than exploring free agency, which might have led him to Minneapolis as Cousins’ eventual replacement.
“I wanted a chance to come back,” Mayfied said, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. “I love coach Bowles and the staff. I’m happy to be here, and I want to win more in the postseason.”
Kirk Cousins Among Winners After Bucs Re-Sign Baker Mayfield
GettyTampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Despite entering his age-36 season after suffering the most severe injury of his 12-year NFL career, Cousins already had a significant amount of bargaining power regarding an extension in Minnesota. Sunday’s events involving Mayfield have only bolstered Cousins’ position, as the Vikings’ options to replace him have become more limited over the past several hours.
The impasse between Minnesota and its six-year starting QB revolves around guaranteed money, especially guarantees in the third year of a potential extension, when Cousins will be 38 years old.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) listed Cousins as the second potential free agent in the 2024 class behind only defensive tackle Chris Jones, who won’t hit the market after signing a historic extension with the Kansas City Chiefs over the weekend. That makes the Vikings quarterback the de facto top free agent available if he fails to sign an extension in Minnesota before the new league year begins on March 13.
Even so, PFF does not expect that Cousins will ultimately get the third year he is seeking — whether from the Vikings or elsewhere. The website predicts that the quarterback will sign a two-year deal worth $80 million total, with $60 million fully guaranteed.
“An ill-timed torn Achilles disrupted another strong season from Cousins, and he seemed likely to have many interested teams in free agency, as he did back in 2018,” PFF contributors wrote. “Cousins still has the necessary arm strength to throw to all levels of the field and has been as accurate as ever in recent seasons.”
Vikings Will Take Major Risk if They Let QB Kirk Cousins Hit Unrestricted Free Agency
GettyHead Coach Raheem Morris of the Atlanta Falcons.
Whether Cousins can receive the third year he desires is not as important as the fact that he is just hours away from having the freedom to sign with any team.
By Monday, Cousins will be able to discuss terms with other teams. Atlanta Falconswho pose the biggest threat to Minnesota. By Wednesday, he will be able to sign with any team of his choice.
If Cousins reaches that point, his contract will also be void, leaving Minnesota burdened with a $28.5 million salary cap hit. Moreover, if Cousins goes elsewhere, the likelihood of the Vikings 'losing' the offseason increases significantly. $28.5 million salary cap hit as a consequence. Furthermore, if Cousins ends up elsewhere, the chances that the Vikings will have an unsuccessful offseason increases significantly.
Minnesota has the No. 11 pick in the first round of the draft and can probably acquire a quality QB prospect. However, that player may not be as promising as quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, who are expected to be picked first and second, respectively. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels —who may well end up coming off the board at picks Nos. 1 and 2, respectively.
The Vikings can attempt to trade into the top three, but doing so may require giving up two future first-round picks along with the No. 11 selection this year, making it a huge risk. If Minnesota stays put, the team can sign a bridge QB at a reasonable number — possibly Russell Wilson — and then develop a player drafted at No. 11 for a year or two. Russell Wilson or Sam Darnold — then develop a player drafted at No. 11 for a year or two.
The latter option seems the most feasible if Cousins doesn't come back. However, the belief that the Vikings will be a Super Bowl contender in the next two years is optimistic at best if that situation ultimately occurs.
